Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management

Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk.

Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making.

How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework.

This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible:

Knowledge of Risk Assessment andManagement is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.

TERJE AVEN, PhD is Professor in Risk Analysis and Risk Management at the University of Stavanger, Norway. He is Editor-in-Chief ofJournal of Risk and Reliability, the Chairman of the European Safety and Reliability Association and President-Elect of the Society for Risk Analysis.

ENRICO ZIO, PhD is Director of the Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge of the Foundation Electricite' de France, at the Laboratoire de Genie Industriel (LGI), CentraleSupélec, Universite' Paris-Saclay, France, and full professor of the Department of Energy and President of the Alumni Association at Politecnico di Milano, Italy.

List of Contributors vii

Preface ix

Acknowledgements xv

Part I Fundamental Ideas, Principles and Approaches 1

1 Risk Assessment with Broad Uncertainty and Knowledge Characterisation: An Illustrating Case Study 3
Terje Aven and Roger Flage

2 The Enigma of Knowledge in the Risk Field 27
Terje Aven and Marja Ylönen

3 Treatment and Communication of Uncertain Assumptions in (Semi?]) quantitative Risk Assessments 49
Roger Flage and Christine L. Berner

4 Critical Slowing?]down Framework for Monitoring Early Warning Signs of Surprise and Unforeseen Events 81
Ivan Damnjanovic and Terje Aven

5 Improving the Foundation and Practice of Uncertainty Analysis: Strengthening Links to Knowledge and Risk 103
Terje Aven

6 Completeness Uncertainty: Conceptual Clarification and Treatment 127
Torbjørn Bjerga, Terje Aven, and Roger Flage

7 Quality of Risk Assessment: Definition and Verification 143
Terje Aven and Enrico Zio

8 Knowledge?]driven System Simulation for Scenario Analysis in Risk Assessment 165
Pietro Turati, Nicola Pedroni, and Enrico Zio

Part II Risk Assessment and Decision Making 221

9 A Decision Support Method for Prioritizing Investments Subject to Uncertainties 223
Shital Thekdi and Terje Aven

10 Risk Analysis under Structural Uncertainty 241
Sven Ove Hansson

Part III Applications 265

11 A Practical Approach to Risk Assessments from Design to Operation of Offshore Oil and Gas Installations 267
Vegard L. Tuft, Beate R. Wagnild, and Olga M. Slyngstad

12 A Semi?]quantitative Approach for Assessment of Risk Trends in the Norwegian Oil and Gas Industry 297
Eirik Bjorheim Abrahamsen, Jon Tømmerås Selvik, Bjørnar Heide, and Jan Erik Vinnem

13 Knowledge Engineering at a Risk?]informed Regulatory Agency: Challenges and Suggestions 313
Nathan Siu and Kevin Coyne

Index 339