InhaltsangabeAcknowledgments xv 1 Introduction 1 1.1 About This Book, 1 1.2 Technology and Society, 2 1.2.1 Social Change, 3 1.2.2 Technological Change, 4 1.3 Management and the Future, 6 1.3.1 Management and Innovation Processes, 7 1.3.2 The Role of Technology Forecasting, 9 1.3.3 The Importance of Technology Forecasting, 10 1.3.4 The Role of Social Forecasting, 12 1.4 Conclusions, 13 References, 13 2 Technology Forecasting 15 2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting?, 15 2.1.1 Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion, 17 2.1.2 Technology Forecasting in Context, 18 2.1.3 What Makes a Forecast Good?, 20 2.1.4 Common Errors in Forecasting Technology, 21 2.2 Methodological Foundations, 23 2.2.1 The Technology Delivery System, 24 2.2.2 Inquiring Systems, 28 2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods, 31 2.3.1 Overview of the Most Frequently Used Forecasting Methods, 33 2.3.2 Method Selection, 37 2.4 Conclusion, 37 References, 38 3 Managing the Forecasting Project 40 3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project, 40 3.1.1 The Technology Manager's Needs, 42 3.1.2 The Forecast Manager's Needs, 43 3.1.3 Information about Team Members, 44 3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast, 46 3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications, 47 3.3.1 Organizing and Managing the Technology Forecast, 50 3.3.2 Communications, 54 3.3.3 Summary Conclusions about Project Management and Organization, 55 3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time, 56 3.5 Project Scheduling, 57 3.5.1 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), 58 3.5.2 Gantt Chart, 60 3.5.3 Project Accountability Chart (PAC), 60 3.5.4 Project Scheduling Software, 61 3.6 Conclusions, 62 References, 62 4 Exploring 65 4.1 Establishing the Context--the TDS, 65 4.1.1 Societal and Institutional Contexts, 66 4.1.2 Technology Context, 67 4.1.3 Stakeholders, 68 4.1.4 Understanding the TDS, 69 4.1.5 An Example TDS Model, 70 4.2 Monitoring, 72 4.2.1 Why Monitor?, 74 4.2.2 Who Should Monitor?, 75 4.2.3 Monitoring Strategy, 76 4.2.4 Monitoring Focused on Management of Technology Issues, 79 4.2.5 Monitoring Focused on the Stage of the Technology Development, 81 4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity, 81 4.3.1 Five Elements of Creativity, 81 4.3.2 Group Creativity, 92 4.4 Conclusion, 95 References, 95 5 Gathering and Using Information 98 5.1 Expert Opinion, 99 5.1.1 Selecting Experts, 99 5.1.2 Selecting Expert Opinion Techniques, 100 5.2 Gathering Information on the Internet, 105 5.2.1 Science and Technology on the Internet, 106 5.2.2 Society and Culture on the Internet, 109 5.3 Structuring the Search, 113 5.4 Preparing Search Results, 116 5.5 Using Search Results, 117 5.6 Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators, 119 5.6.1 Science and Technology Indicators, 119 5.6.2 Social Indicators, 122 5.7 Communicating Search Results, 122 5.8 Conclusions, 123 References, 124 6 Analyzing Phase 129 6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods, 129 6.1.1 Overview and Caveats, 130 6.1.2 Internet Time Series Data and Trends, 132 6.1.3 Analytical Modeling, 133 6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions, 134 6.3 Growth Models, 138 6.3.1 The Models, 138 6.3.2 Dealing with the Data, 143 6.3.3 Regression and Growth Modeling: What Can Go Wrong?, 144 6.4 Simulation, 145 6.4.1 Quantitative Cross-Impact Analysis, 146 6.4.2 Qualitative Cross-Impact Analysis, 152 6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation, 153 6.5.1 Generating and Displaying Random Values, 153 6.5.2 Sampling Multiple Random Variables, 154 6.5.3 RFID Application in a Hospital Decision, 156 6.6 System Dynamics, 158 6.6.1 The System Dynamics Modeling Cycle, 159 6.6.2 A Technology Forecasting Example: The Cable-to-the-Curb Model, 162 6.7 Gaming, 164 6.7.1 Decision Trees, 165 6.7.2 Bayesian Estimati

ALAN THOMAS ROPER (retired) was a professor at Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology in Terre Haute, Indiana. He is the past editor of the journal Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal and the past director of the Center for Technology and Policy Studies at Rose-Hulman. SCOTT W. CUNNINGHAM obtained a MSc in public policy from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a DPhil in science, technology, and innovation policy from the University of Sussex. He is currently Assistant Professor of Policy Analysis in the Department of Technology, Policy, and Management at Delft University of Technology. ALAN L. PORTER has led development of "technology opportunity analysis" and mining electronic, bibliographic data sources to generate intelligence on emerging technologies. He holds an MA in psychology and a PhD in engineering psychology, both from UCLA. He is currently Director of Research and Development for Search Technology, Inc., in Norcross, Georgia. THOMAS W. MASON was the founding head of the Engineering Management Department (www.rose-hulman.edu/msem). While on a three-year leave from Rose-Hulman, he served as CFO and CEO of a 140-person network management systems business. FREDERICK A. ROSSINI (retired) is a former provost at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. JERRY BANKS is Professor Emeritus, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Georgia.

Leseprobe

Chapter 1. Introduction. 1.1 About this Book. 1.2 Technology and Society. 1.3 Management and the Future. 1.4 Conclusions. References. Chapter 2. Technology Forecasting. 2.1 What is Technology Forecasting? 2.2 Methodological Foundations. 2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods. 2.4 Conclusion. References. Chapter 3. Managing the Forecasting Project. 3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project. 3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast. 3.3 Team Organization, Management and Communications. 3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time. 3.5 Project Scheduling. 3.6 Conclusions. References. Chapter 4. Exploring. 4.1 Establishing the Context - The TDS. 4.2 Monitoring. 4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity. 4.4 Conclusion. References. Chapter 5. Gathering and Using Information. 5.1 Expert Opinion. 5.3 Structuring The Search. 5.4 Preparing Search Results. 5.5 Using Search Results. 5.6 Developing Science, Technology and Social Indicators. 5.7 Communicating Search Results. 5.8 Conclusions. References. Chapter 6. Analyzing Phase. 6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods. 6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions. 6.3 Growth Models. 6.4 Simulation. 6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation. 6.6 System Dynamics. 6.7 Gaming. 6.8 Software Suggestions. References. Chapter 7. Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis. 7.1 Uncertainty. 7.2 Scenarios. 7.3 Examples and Applications. 7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques. 7.5 Conclusions. References. Chapter 8. Economic and Market Analysis. 8.1 The Context. 8.2 Forecasting the Market. 8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context. 8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context. 8.5 Conclusion. References. Chapter 9. Impact Assessment. 9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting. 9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology. 9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment. 9.4 Impact Identification. 9.5 Impact Analysis. 9.6 Impact Evaluation. 9.7 Conclusion. References. Chapter 10. Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis. 10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices. 10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis. 10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty. 10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase. References. Chapter 11. Implementing the Technology. 11.1 Forecasting Continues. 11.2 Implementation Issues. 11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation. 11.4 Selecting From Alternative Implementations of the Technology. 11.5 Technology Roadmapping. 11.6 When Plans and Forecasts Fail. 11.7 Summary and Concluding Observations. References. Chapter 12. Managing the Present From the Future. 12.1 The Overall Approach. 12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques. 12.3 Alternative perspectives. 12.4 Learning From Past Forecasts and Assessments. 12.5 Visions. 12.6 A Final Word. References. Chapter 13. Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells. 13.1 Framing the Case Study. 13.2 Methods. 13.3 The Rest of the Story. References.